{"F": {"ts_code": "300105.SZ", "name": "龙源技术", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环保设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "环保设备Ⅲ", "ind": "环保设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100820", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.46, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.1533, "dv_ttm": 2.0107, "total_mv": 384797.5424, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.9, 19.1, 18.3, 20.5, 14.9, 21.9], "rev_series": [4.6, 5.4, 7.3, 11.3, 12.8, 9.6], "np_series": [0.1, 0.1, 0.9, 1.4, 0.7, -0.4], "roe_series": [0.5, 0.3, 4.8, 7.4, 3.4, -1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.6, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 6.2, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 19.1, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": 5.1, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.0, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.15, "capex_dep": 0.05, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 31.1, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 66.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -1.0, "np_yoy": -67.0, "np_vol": 578.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["节油业务", 32.0], ["低氮燃烧产品", 13.0], ["低氮燃烧业务", 13.0], ["生物质业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.0, "ret_prev2_year": 15.5, "ret_ytd": 6.4, "ret_pivot": 46.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.3, "ret_60": 12.7, "ret_120": -4.0, "ret_250": -4.1, "mdd_250": -27.1, "vol_250": 55.9, "pos_52w": 73.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 18, "bondness": 49}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 31%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 6.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.2%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.05 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 13% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环保设备Ⅱ」27 家中位:PE 34.2 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 27.4% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 41%。", "龙源技术:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点。"]}}