{"F": {"ts_code": "300102.SZ", "name": "乾照光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "LED", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100812", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.68, "pe_ttm": 119.764, "pb": 3.7245, "dv_ttm": 0.2783, "total_mv": 1627150.1584, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.7, 25.6, 16.6, 12.4, 16.7, 11.4], "rev_series": [13.2, 18.8, 17.0, 23.9, 24.3, 34.0], "np_series": [-2.5, 1.9, -0.5, 0.3, 1.0, 1.1], "roe_series": [-10.0, 7.6, -1.5, 0.8, 2.3, 2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.5, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 16.6, "gm_std": 5.0, "gm_stab": 0.7, "gm_chg_2022": 9.9, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 2.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.9, "fix_assets": 26.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.72, "capex_dep": 0.39, "interest_debt": 10.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 32.8, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 43.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 26.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -48.9, "np_yoy": 30.6, "np_vol": 124.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["芯片产品", 49.0], ["外延片及芯片", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 168.0, "ret_prev2_year": 41.5, "ret_ytd": -35.7, "ret_pivot": 191.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.0, "ret_60": -21.7, "ret_120": -45.6, "ret_250": 26.6, "mdd_250": -63.7, "vol_250": 82.8, "pos_52w": 40.8}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 44, "hard": 65, "bondness": 24}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%,稳定度 70%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.6%,稳定度 70%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 0.39 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 119.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 27%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 83%,现价在 52 周高点的 41%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -22% / -46%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "乾照光电:PE 比行业中位高 58.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.5个百分点。"]}}