{"F": {"ts_code": "300101.SZ", "name": "振芯科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100806", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.5, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.6652, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 823463.265, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [54.0, 56.6, 55.4, 54.6, 52.9, 54.4], "rev_series": [5.8, 7.9, 11.8, 8.5, 8.0, 9.6], "np_series": [0.8, 1.5, 3.0, 0.7, 0.4, 0.3], "roe_series": [8.3, 13.5, 21.8, 4.5, 2.3, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.1, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -3.0, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 54.6, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 4.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.7, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.67, "capex_dep": 6.5, "interest_debt": 4.8, "debt_ebitda": 7.7, "debt_ratio": 33.4, "debt_mv": 5.8, "payout": 103.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -6.9, "np_cagr3": -54.5, "rev_yoy": -29.6, "np_yoy": -114.6, "np_vol": 71.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["集成电路业务", 27.0], ["北斗导航综合应用", 15.0], ["智慧城市建设运营服务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.7, "ret_prev2_year": -5.1, "ret_ytd": -49.0, "ret_pivot": 14.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.3, "ret_60": -8.5, "ret_120": -36.4, "ret_250": -45.8, "mdd_250": -59.5, "vol_250": 47.0, "pos_52w": 43.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 24, "bondness": 70}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 33%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 54.6%),硬资产占比 15%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.0%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 54.6%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 6.50 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 43%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -8% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "振芯科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点。"]}}