{"F": {"ts_code": "300100.SZ", "name": "双林股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100806", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.99, "pe_ttm": 39.5251, "pb": 3.7002, "dv_ttm": 0.4706, "total_mv": 1215314.5771, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.3, 18.5, 17.0, 18.9, 18.5, 20.9], "rev_series": [35.8, 36.8, 41.9, 41.4, 49.1, 54.8], "np_series": [0.9, 1.3, 0.8, 0.8, 5.0, 5.0], "roe_series": [5.2, 6.3, 3.4, 3.8, 20.5, 17.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 50.9, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": 7.8, "fcf_ttm": 4.2, "fcf_yield": 3.5, "ocf_yield": 6.4, "gm_median": 18.5, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.4, "fix_assets": 21.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.8, "pb_calc": 3.7, "capex_dep": 1.26, "interest_debt": 5.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 49.3, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 16.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.4, "np_cagr3": 88.5, "rev_yoy": -15.8, "np_yoy": -68.2, "np_vol": 206.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 23.3, "fwd_pe2": 19.3, "fwd_g1": 69.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.11, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["传动驱动智能", 30.0], ["内外饰件", 17.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 102.7, "ret_prev2_year": 173.3, "ret_ytd": -46.9, "ret_pivot": 139.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.5, "ret_60": -26.7, "ret_120": -33.5, "ret_250": -58.6, "mdd_250": -59.4, "vol_250": 48.1, "pos_52w": 42.2}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 48, "hard": 53, "bondness": 21}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.5%(经营现金流/市值 6.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 1.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.5 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -59%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -27% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "双林股份:PE 比行业中位高 9.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点。"]}}