{"F": {"ts_code": "300098.SZ", "name": "高新兴", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信网络设备及器件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100728", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.9336, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 780264.2078, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 28.0, 26.2, 31.5, 31.1, 33.1], "rev_series": [23.3, 26.7, 23.3, 18.0, 14.2, 19.9], "np_series": [-11.0, 0.4, -2.7, -1.0, -2.4, -0.3], "roe_series": [-28.2, 1.3, -8.4, -3.5, -8.6, -1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.6, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 3.0, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 31.1, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": -6.1, "roe_median": -3.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.2, "fix_assets": 8.9, "goodwill_ratio": 2.8, "pb_calc": 2.93, "capex_dep": 2.28, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 46.4, "debt_mv": 2.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -5.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.8, "np_yoy": 24.9, "np_vol": 315.4, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["车载智能产品", 23.0], ["铁路轨道交通", 10.0], ["铁路轨交产品", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.3, "ret_prev2_year": 35.0, "ret_ytd": -26.4, "ret_pivot": 19.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.9, "ret_60": -8.4, "ret_120": -21.1, "ret_250": -27.9, "mdd_250": -41.8, "vol_250": 38.7, "pos_52w": 62.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 56, "hard": 28, "bondness": 33}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 46%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.1%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 2.28 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -8% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "高新兴:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点。"]}}