{"F": {"ts_code": "300094.SZ", "name": "国联水产", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "渔业", "sw3": "水产养殖", "ind": "渔业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100708", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.15, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 35.8459, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 355372.6995, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.5, 15.7, 13.4, 7.1, 9.8, -6.1], "rev_series": [44.9, 44.7, 48.5, 46.2, 34.1, 31.9], "np_series": [-2.7, -0.1, -0.1, -5.3, -7.4, -16.3], "roe_series": [-12.4, -0.7, -0.3, -18.7, -33.6, -169.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.8, "np_ttm": -10.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 9.8, "gm_std": 7.6, "gm_stab": 0.22, "gm_chg_2022": 1.9, "npm_median": -11.7, "roe_median": -18.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.8, "fix_assets": 8.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 35.85, "capex_dep": 0.35, "interest_debt": 10.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 95.2, "debt_mv": 30.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -13.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -12.5, "np_yoy": 101.9, "np_vol": 3359.6, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["水产食品", 33.0], ["水产品", 33.0], ["其他", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.1, "ret_prev2_year": -19.4, "ret_ytd": -11.5, "ret_pivot": 13.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.5, "ret_60": 14.5, "ret_120": -11.0, "ret_250": -25.0, "mdd_250": -54.5, "vol_250": 49.0, "pos_52w": 58.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 22, "hard": 60, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 38%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.9 个百分点;资产负债率 95%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%,稳定度 22%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.8%,稳定度 22%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.35 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 14% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「渔业」6 家中位:PE 108.6 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.9% / 固定资产占比 38% / 分红率 31%。", "国联水产:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}