{"F": {"ts_code": "300092.SZ", "name": "科新机电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "能源及重型设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100708", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.76, "pe_ttm": 60.5035, "pb": 1.9544, "dv_ttm": 0.8503, "total_mv": 322133.8008, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.3, 22.5, 24.1, 23.4, 27.8, 24.9], "rev_series": [7.4, 9.5, 10.8, 15.0, 12.2, 11.5], "np_series": [0.8, 0.9, 1.2, 1.6, 1.7, 0.6], "roe_series": [12.8, 13.4, 15.3, 13.8, 10.7, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.7, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 24.1, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 10.9, "roe_median": 13.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.1, "fix_assets": 3.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.95, "capex_dep": 4.87, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 28.3, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 38.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": -19.2, "rev_yoy": -13.4, "np_yoy": -20.6, "np_vol": 35.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["煤化工设备", 38.0], ["天然气化工设备", 20.0], ["油气装备锻件", 12.0], ["油气装备", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.1, "ret_prev2_year": -12.2, "ret_ytd": -25.0, "ret_pivot": 36.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.1, "ret_60": -8.0, "ret_120": -32.6, "ret_250": -13.5, "mdd_250": -49.5, "vol_250": 54.6, "pos_52w": 58.2}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 48, "hard": 23, "bondness": 39}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 60.5 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 4.87 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 60.5 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -8% / -33%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "科新机电:PE 比行业中位高 18.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.9个百分点。"]}}