{"F": {"ts_code": "300088.SZ", "name": "长信科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100526", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.73, "pe_ttm": 168.605, "pb": 1.9497, "dv_ttm": 0.7368, "total_mv": 1680974.6455, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.5, 23.7, 19.2, 10.2, 9.9, 10.8], "rev_series": [68.4, 70.2, 69.9, 88.9, 110.6, 115.7], "np_series": [8.3, 9.0, 6.8, 2.4, 3.6, 2.0], "roe_series": [12.5, 12.3, 8.5, 2.9, 4.3, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 103.7, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -9.5, "fcf_yield": -5.7, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 10.8, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.48, "gm_chg_2022": -7.3, "npm_median": 3.3, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.3, "fix_assets": 77.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 1.95, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 43.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 52.0, "debt_mv": 26.0, "payout": 62.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.3, "np_cagr3": -33.1, "rev_yoy": -19.7, "np_yoy": -47.8, "np_vol": 39.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 43.4, "fwd_pe2": 28.0, "fwd_g1": 288.0, "fwd_g2": 55.0, "peg": 0.79, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["触控显示器件材料", 33.0], ["显示器件材料", 33.0], ["产品", 33.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.5, "ret_prev2_year": -1.2, "ret_ytd": 12.0, "ret_pivot": 47.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.5, "ret_60": -13.6, "ret_120": -0.4, "ret_250": 0.6, "mdd_250": -46.1, "vol_250": 58.7, "pos_52w": 57.7}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 26, "hard": 68, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%,稳定度 48%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%,稳定度 48%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 1.38 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 168.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -14% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "长信科技:PE 比行业中位高 107.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.9个百分点。"]}}