{"F": {"ts_code": "300087.SZ", "name": "ST荃银", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "种子", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100526", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.0, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.4869, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 568399.08, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.7, 28.8, 26.8, 26.9, 25.0, 21.5], "rev_series": [16.0, 25.2, 34.9, 41.0, 47.1, 44.9], "np_series": [1.3, 1.7, 2.3, 2.7, 1.0, -2.1], "roe_series": [23.1, 16.5, 15.1, 14.7, 5.0, -11.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.4, "np_ttm": -2.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 26.8, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 8.4, "roe_median": 14.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.6, "fix_assets": 8.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 3.49, "capex_dep": 2.72, "interest_debt": 22.1, "debt_ebitda": 9.9, "debt_ratio": 64.8, "debt_mv": 38.8, "payout": 42.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -17.9, "np_yoy": -34.1, "np_vol": 133.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["水稻种子", 17.0], ["订单粮食、青贮饲料", 13.0], ["粮食作物及青贮饲料", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.6, "ret_prev2_year": 42.8, "ret_ytd": -48.6, "ret_pivot": -2.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.8, "ret_60": -14.7, "ret_120": -33.6, "ret_250": -38.3, "mdd_250": -59.4, "vol_250": 47.1, "pos_52w": 50.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 22, "bondness": 41}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 65%,有息负债 22 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.8%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 2.72 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / -15% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "ST荃银:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.2个百分点。"]}}