{"F": {"ts_code": "300083.SZ", "name": "创世纪", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.29, "pe_ttm": 98.9826, "pb": 3.7516, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2089914.178, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.0, 30.0, 26.5, 23.3, 23.1, 24.9], "rev_series": [34.8, 52.6, 45.3, 35.3, 46.1, 53.2], "np_series": [-6.9, 5.0, 3.4, 1.9, 2.4, 1.4], "roe_series": [-28.7, 19.2, 8.7, 4.1, 4.8, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 60.8, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_ttm": -5.0, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": -1.7, "gm_median": 24.9, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 4.5, "npm_median": 5.8, "roe_median": 4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.8, "fix_assets": 14.3, "goodwill_ratio": 12.5, "pb_calc": 3.75, "capex_dep": 1.05, "interest_debt": 21.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 57.7, "debt_mv": 10.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 5.5, "np_cagr3": -24.7, "rev_yoy": 31.3, "np_yoy": 29.1, "np_vol": 81.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 30.2, "fwd_pe2": 20.2, "fwd_g1": 228.0, "fwd_g2": 50.0, "peg": 0.6, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["数控机床等高端装备", 33.0], ["数控机床", 33.0], ["经营租赁", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.5, "ret_prev2_year": 2.8, "ret_ytd": 33.4, "ret_pivot": 117.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.1, "ret_60": 17.8, "ret_120": 44.1, "ret_250": 17.0, "mdd_250": -35.7, "vol_250": 63.0, "pos_52w": 84.4}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 55, "hard": 17, "bondness": 22}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 99.0 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(7 篇研报)前瞻 PE 30.2 倍,次年 20.2 倍,PEG 0.60。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.9%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.05 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 99.0 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 17%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 63%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / 18% / 44%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "创世纪:PE 比行业中位高 21.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点。"]}}