{"F": {"ts_code": "300082.SZ", "name": "奥克股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "其他化学原料", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.44, "pe_ttm": 85.6293, "pb": 2.0434, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 574002.8808, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.2, 9.7, 4.7, -1.0, 2.9, 4.8], "rev_series": [57.1, 67.2, 56.4, 38.1, 42.9, 42.3], "np_series": [4.0, 3.5, 0.1, -3.1, -1.6, 0.1], "roe_series": [12.4, 10.5, 0.2, -10.0, -5.6, 0.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 44.8, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": -1.9, "gm_median": 4.7, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.27, "gm_chg_2022": -8.5, "npm_median": 0.3, "roe_median": 0.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.2, "fix_assets": 16.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.2, "pb_calc": 2.04, "capex_dep": 0.12, "interest_debt": 20.3, "debt_ebitda": 8.2, "debt_ratio": 50.2, "debt_mv": 35.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -9.2, "np_cagr3": 6.7, "rev_yoy": 12.4, "np_yoy": 4621.1, "np_vol": 2253.6, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 42.2, "fwd_pe2": 36.7, "fwd_g1": 103.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 2.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["聚醚单体", 18.0], ["脂肪醇醚", 10.0], ["聚乙二醇", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 57.9, "ret_prev2_year": -10.0, "ret_ytd": -14.7, "ret_pivot": 76.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.4, "ret_60": -4.0, "ret_120": -21.0, "ret_250": 4.1, "mdd_250": -50.7, "vol_250": 59.3, "pos_52w": 62.0}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 16, "hard": 44, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 86 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 50%,有息负债 20 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 27%,毛利率近 5 年中位 4.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 -1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.7%,稳定度 27%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 0.12 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 85.6 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -4% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "奥克股份:PE 比行业中位高 49.7倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 20.2个百分点。"]}}