{"F": {"ts_code": "300078.SZ", "name": "思创智联", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "IT服务Ⅱ", "sw3": "IT服务Ⅲ", "ind": "IT服务Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100430", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.82, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.4138, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 315239.9604, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.1, 18.3, 16.0, 21.0, 12.1, 13.3], "rev_series": [14.6, 9.6, 11.2, 10.1, 6.9, 6.8], "np_series": [0.9, -7.3, -8.8, -8.7, -5.0, -0.7], "roe_series": [0.5, -27.8, -52.4, -100.5, -93.3, -12.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.3, "np_ttm": -0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -3.0, "ocf_yield": -2.0, "gm_median": 16.0, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -22.1, "npm_median": -73.0, "roe_median": -52.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.0, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.41, "capex_dep": 2.3, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 45.7, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -15.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -65.2, "np_yoy": 55.5, "np_vol": 1864.4, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["RFID标签", 25.0], ["RFID", 25.0], ["防盗标签及其他", 24.0], ["EAS", 24.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.7, "ret_prev2_year": -30.6, "ret_ytd": -36.3, "ret_pivot": 16.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.2, "ret_60": -10.2, "ret_120": -35.2, "ret_250": -23.6, "mdd_250": -56.5, "vol_250": 54.3, "pos_52w": 46.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 19, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 46%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.0%(经营现金流/市值 -2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -22.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 2.30 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -10% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「IT服务Ⅱ」134 家中位:PE 84.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 28.1% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 35%。", "思创智联:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点。"]}}