{"F": {"ts_code": "300077.SZ", "name": "国民技术", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100430", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.94, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 7.6923, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1352184.6398, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.0, 48.0, 37.9, 14.3, 20.9, 20.0], "rev_series": [3.8, 10.2, 12.0, 10.4, 11.7, 13.6], "np_series": [0.1, 2.2, -0.3, -5.7, -2.4, -1.2], "roe_series": [0.9, 16.0, -2.0, -40.5, -21.8, -12.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.3, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_ttm": -5.0, "fcf_yield": -3.7, "ocf_yield": -1.6, "gm_median": 20.9, "gm_std": 12.6, "gm_stab": 0.4, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": -8.6, "roe_median": -12.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.9, "fix_assets": 11.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 7.69, "capex_dep": 2.99, "interest_debt": 21.4, "debt_ebitda": 16.1, "debt_ratio": 62.2, "debt_mv": 15.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 4.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 43.4, "np_yoy": 112.0, "np_vol": 1112.2, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 997.0, "fwd_pe2": 45.3, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 2100.0, "peg": 0.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["负极材料", 34.0], ["集成电路和关键元器件等", 32.0], ["安全芯片类产品", 32.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.2, "ret_prev2_year": 111.2, "ret_ytd": -1.4, "ret_pivot": 94.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.3, "ret_60": -11.6, "ret_120": -14.1, "ret_250": -31.6, "mdd_250": -49.5, "vol_250": 57.5, "pos_52w": 63.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 29, "hard": 40, "bondness": 31}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 62%,有息负债 21 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.7%(经营现金流/市值 -1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.9%,稳定度 40%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 2.99 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -12% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "国民技术:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 14.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.5个百分点。"]}}