{"F": {"ts_code": "300070.SZ", "name": "碧水源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.45, "pe_ttm": 63.0111, "pb": 0.4564, "dv_ttm": 0.1159, "total_mv": 1250352.2085, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.8, 29.2, 29.8, 28.9, 29.1, 24.5], "rev_series": [96.2, 95.5, 86.9, 89.5, 85.5, 77.8], "np_series": [11.4, 5.8, 7.1, 7.6, 0.6, 0.6], "roe_series": [5.6, 2.5, 2.7, 2.8, 0.2, 0.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 76.5, "np_ttm": 2.0, "ocf_ttm": 9.9, "fcf_ttm": -9.0, "fcf_yield": -7.2, "ocf_yield": 7.9, "gm_median": 29.1, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 0.0, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.0, "fix_assets": 8.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 0.46, "capex_dep": 23.28, "interest_debt": 312.7, "debt_ebitda": 19.7, "debt_ratio": 62.8, "debt_mv": 250.1, "payout": 23.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.6, "np_cagr3": -55.8, "rev_yoy": -4.6, "np_yoy": 128.5, "np_vol": 42.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["运营服务", 24.0], ["环保整体解决方案", 14.0], ["污水处理整体解决方案", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": -22.5, "ret_prev2_year": 2.3, "ret_ytd": -11.9, "ret_pivot": 8.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.4, "ret_60": -1.0, "ret_120": -18.7, "ret_250": -27.6, "mdd_250": -33.2, "vol_250": 23.5, "pos_52w": 72.2}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 55, "hard": 2, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 63.0 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.1%、固定资产占比 1%、有息负债/EBITDA 19.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.2%(经营现金流/市值 7.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 23.28 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 63.0 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -1% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "碧水源:PE 比行业中位高 36.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点。"]}}