{"F": {"ts_code": "300069.SZ", "name": "金利华电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.44, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 10.6966, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 297648.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.4, 24.3, 22.2, 19.8, 32.0, 31.3], "rev_series": [1.3, 2.3, 1.2, 1.8, 2.7, 2.2], "np_series": [-0.6, -0.4, -0.3, 0.1, 0.3, -0.1], "roe_series": [-18.4, -13.6, -11.2, 3.2, 12.4, -2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.5, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -6.0, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 24.3, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": 3.7, "npm_median": -6.5, "roe_median": -2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.6, "fix_assets": 4.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.7, "capex_dep": 6.93, "interest_debt": 3.9, "debt_ebitda": 6.2, "debt_ratio": 67.0, "debt_mv": 13.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 23.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 35.1, "np_yoy": 36.1, "np_vol": 143.1, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["玻璃绝缘子", 76.0], ["戏剧影视", 23.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.0, "ret_prev2_year": -18.2, "ret_ytd": 47.5, "ret_pivot": 121.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.8, "ret_60": -29.2, "ret_120": 30.7, "ret_250": 18.4, "mdd_250": -55.8, "vol_250": 75.9, "pos_52w": 47.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 84, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 67%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.3%,稳定度 80%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.0%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.3%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 6.93 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -29% / 31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "金利华电:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 37.7个百分点。"]}}