{"F": {"ts_code": "300068.SZ", "name": "ST南都", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "蓄电池及其他电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100421", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.14, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 12.8147, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 371924.0622, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.5, 4.2, 9.2, 9.1, -1.3, 5.9], "rev_series": [102.6, 118.5, 117.5, 146.7, 79.8, 74.7], "np_series": [-2.8, -13.7, 3.3, 0.4, -15.0, -26.4], "roe_series": [-4.5, -25.7, 6.8, 0.7, -31.8, -97.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 52.5, "np_ttm": -35.2, "ocf_ttm": 12.6, "fcf_ttm": 11.9, "fcf_yield": 32.0, "ocf_yield": 33.8, "gm_median": 5.9, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.34, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": -13.8, "roe_median": -25.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.3, "fix_assets": 58.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 12.81, "capex_dep": 0.11, "interest_debt": 69.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 99.8, "debt_mv": 187.6, "payout": 162.5, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -14.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -56.7, "np_yoy": -378.1, "np_vol": 1669.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["锂离子电池产品", 20.0], ["锂离子电池", 20.0], ["锂电池材料", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.7, "ret_prev2_year": 25.4, "ret_ytd": -73.4, "ret_pivot": -65.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.6, "ret_60": 11.6, "ret_120": -74.5, "ret_250": -76.0, "mdd_250": -82.4, "vol_250": 65.6, "pos_52w": 19.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 22, "hard": 71, "bondness": 58}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 44%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点;资产负债率 100%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.9%,稳定度 34%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 32.0%(经营现金流/市值 33.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.9%,稳定度 34%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.11 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -76%,最大回撤 -82%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 20%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 12% / -74%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "ST南都:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 16.5个百分点。"]}}