{"F": {"ts_code": "300065.SZ", "name": "海兰信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航海装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航海装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航海装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100326", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.62, "pe_ttm": 687.4323, "pb": 6.3683, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1127044.2304, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.9, 33.8, 18.3, 23.2, 33.9, 28.7], "rev_series": [8.7, 9.0, 7.2, 7.5, 3.8, 7.2], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, -7.9, -1.2, 0.1, 0.4], "roe_series": [3.3, 2.8, -41.0, -6.4, 0.5, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 28.7, "gm_std": 6.1, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -12.6, "npm_median": 2.1, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.5, "fix_assets": 4.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.37, "capex_dep": 7.66, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 30.8, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -0.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -49.6, "np_yoy": -70.0, "np_vol": 754.2, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能船舶与智能航行系统", 61.0], ["海洋观探测装备与系统", 19.0], ["其他主营业务", 10.0], ["其他", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 121.6, "ret_prev2_year": -19.4, "ret_ytd": -14.0, "ret_pivot": 145.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.0, "ret_60": -13.8, "ret_120": -40.5, "ret_250": -29.0, "mdd_250": -50.8, "vol_250": 68.3, "pos_52w": 53.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 30, "bondness": 25}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 687 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 31%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.7%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 7.66 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 687.4 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -14% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航海装备Ⅱ」10 家中位:PE 30.4 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 30%。", "海兰信:PE 比行业中位高 657.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点。"]}}