{"F": {"ts_code": "300063.SZ", "name": "天龙集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "营销代理", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100326", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.28, "pe_ttm": 74.7983, "pb": 3.9139, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 703913.1488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [5.6, 6.7, 5.8, 6.0, 6.1, 6.8], "rev_series": [106.7, 106.4, 96.3, 87.0, 72.8, 75.7], "np_series": [1.2, 1.2, 1.0, 0.1, 0.7, 1.1], "roe_series": [10.6, 9.5, 7.0, 0.9, 4.1, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 83.9, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 6.1, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 0.3, "npm_median": 1.1, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.0, "fix_assets": 2.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 3.91, "capex_dep": 2.45, "interest_debt": 9.2, "debt_ebitda": 4.1, "debt_ratio": 50.8, "debt_mv": 13.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -7.7, "np_cagr3": 3.3, "rev_yoy": 23.6, "np_yoy": -27.8, "np_vol": 162.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["数字营销行业", 27.0], ["数字营销", 27.0], ["林产化工", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.0, "ret_prev2_year": 30.8, "ret_ytd": 8.3, "ret_pivot": 122.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": 0.9, "ret_120": -20.8, "ret_250": -2.2, "mdd_250": -58.8, "vol_250": 70.8, "pos_52w": 52.3}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 43, "hard": 10, "bondness": 32}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 74.8 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 6.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 2.45 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 74.8 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 1% / -21%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "天龙集团:PE 比行业中位低 23.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点。"]}}