{"F": {"ts_code": "300061.SZ", "name": "旗天科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "营销代理", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100319", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.57, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 10.0233, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 432958.7952, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.4, 38.6, 31.5, 26.4, 33.9, 26.2], "rev_series": [14.7, 10.5, 12.6, 9.7, 6.3, 4.1], "np_series": [-7.6, -3.7, 0.5, -5.0, -2.1, -0.8], "roe_series": [-39.3, -26.7, 4.3, -49.7, -32.5, -16.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.9, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_yield": 4.7, "ocf_yield": 4.8, "gm_median": 31.5, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -16.0, "npm_median": -34.1, "roe_median": -26.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.3, "fix_assets": 0.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.02, "capex_dep": 2.02, "interest_debt": 4.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 60.1, "debt_mv": 11.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -30.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -11.0, "np_yoy": -141.2, "np_vol": 451.7, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["数字生活营销业务", 32.0], ["数字生活营销", 32.0], ["信用卡账单分期", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -18.4, "ret_prev2_year": 120.1, "ret_ytd": -37.5, "ret_pivot": -12.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.1, "ret_60": -14.1, "ret_120": -28.7, "ret_250": -52.6, "mdd_250": -58.2, "vol_250": 53.8, "pos_52w": 47.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 0, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 60%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.5%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.7%(经营现金流/市值 4.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.5%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 2.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -53%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -14% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "旗天科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点。"]}}