{"F": {"ts_code": "300059.SZ", "name": "东方财富", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100319", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.15, "pe_ttm": 20.7794, "pb": 3.079, "dv_ttm": 0.5216, "total_mv": 30299512.8085, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [82.6, 87.7, 88.5, 86.2, 84.0, 84.5], "rev_series": [32.5, 54.0, 46.3, 38.9, 31.1, 35.3], "np_series": [47.8, 85.5, 85.1, 81.9, 96.1, 120.8], "roe_series": [17.6, 22.2, 15.6, 12.0, 12.6, 14.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.3, "np_ttm": 145.8, "ocf_ttm": 154.6, "fcf_ttm": 151.8, "fcf_yield": 5.0, "ocf_yield": 5.1, "gm_median": 86.2, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 5.9, "npm_median": 210.8, "roe_median": 14.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.5, "fix_assets": 26.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 3.08, "capex_dep": 0.86, "interest_debt": 4012.3, "debt_ebitda": 26.5, "debt_ratio": 80.5, "debt_mv": 132.4, "payout": 9.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -8.6, "np_cagr3": 12.4, "rev_yoy": 44.5, "np_yoy": 44.8, "np_vol": 29.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 19.8, "fwd_pe2": 17.7, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["证券服务", 43.0], ["证券经纪业务", 25.0], ["利息净收入", 12.0], ["金融电子商务服务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.1, "ret_prev2_year": 85.4, "ret_ytd": -17.0, "ret_pivot": 81.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.2, "ret_60": 10.3, "ret_120": -8.8, "ret_250": -31.9, "mdd_250": -39.7, "vol_250": 32.8, "pos_52w": 66.5}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 42}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["东方财富 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 14.0%,PB 3.08倍,股息率 0.5%,分红率 10%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 4.8%(1/PE)与股息率 0.5% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.8 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / 10% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "东方财富:PE 比行业中位高 5.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 76.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点。"]}}