{"F": {"ts_code": "300058.SZ", "name": "蓝色光标", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "营销代理", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100226", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.97, "pe_ttm": 147.643, "pb": 6.2985, "dv_ttm": 0.0716, "total_mv": 5015539.0164, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [6.4, 6.3, 4.7, 3.4, 2.6, 2.6], "rev_series": [405.3, 400.8, 366.8, 526.2, 608.0, 686.9], "np_series": [7.2, 5.2, -21.8, 1.2, -2.9, 2.2], "roe_series": [8.2, 5.7, -25.9, 1.6, -3.8, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 708.9, "np_ttm": 3.4, "ocf_ttm": 14.3, "fcf_ttm": 14.3, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 2.9, "gm_median": 3.4, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.58, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 0.2, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.2, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 6.0, "pb_calc": 6.3, "capex_dep": 0.43, "interest_debt": 22.5, "debt_ebitda": 5.3, "debt_ratio": 73.0, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 18.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 23.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.8, "np_yoy": 119.3, "np_vol": 267.5, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 199.6, "fwd_pe2": 174.6, "fwd_g1": -26.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 14.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["出海广告投放", 42.0], ["全案推广服务", 4.0], ["全案广告代理", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.9, "ret_prev2_year": 29.5, "ret_ytd": 21.4, "ret_pivot": 272.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.0, "ret_60": -3.0, "ret_120": -6.7, "ret_250": 86.5, "mdd_250": -52.1, "vol_250": 80.5, "pos_52w": 59.7}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 28, "hard": 0, "bondness": 22}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 3.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 148 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 73%,有息负债 22 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 3.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.4%,稳定度 58%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 0.43 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 147.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 86%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 80%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -3% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "蓝色光标:PE 比行业中位高 49.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点。"]}}