{"F": {"ts_code": "300057.SZ", "name": "万顺新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100226", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.41, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.1381, "dv_ttm": 0.156, "total_mv": 643289.3315, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.6, 7.7, 10.2, 6.5, 5.2, 5.4], "rev_series": [50.7, 54.4, 58.3, 53.7, 65.8, 58.0], "np_series": [0.8, -0.4, 2.0, -0.5, -1.9, -1.8], "roe_series": [2.2, -1.2, 4.5, -0.9, -3.6, -3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 68.5, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": -4.2, "fcf_ttm": -7.9, "fcf_yield": -12.2, "ocf_yield": -6.6, "gm_median": 6.5, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": -1.0, "roe_median": -1.2, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 36.1, "fix_assets": 42.6, "goodwill_ratio": 1.8, "pb_calc": 1.14, "capex_dep": 1.53, "interest_debt": 41.8, "debt_ebitda": 11.8, "debt_ratio": 52.2, "debt_mv": 64.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -0.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 38.9, "np_yoy": 209.7, "np_vol": 297.0, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 80.1, "fwd_pe2": 40.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 100.0, "peg": 0.8, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["铝加工产品", 46.0], ["转移纸", 2.0], ["其他业务收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.3, "ret_prev2_year": -22.0, "ret_ytd": 12.9, "ret_pivot": 61.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.8, "ret_60": -21.5, "ret_120": 1.7, "ret_250": -2.6, "mdd_250": -43.9, "vol_250": 55.8, "pos_52w": 63.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 58, "bondness": 36}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 52%,有息负债 42 亿,经营现金流/市值 -6.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 36%、毛利率 6.5% 两条都占,但所在行业(有色金属)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -12.2%(经营现金流/市值 -6.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.5%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 1.53 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -22% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "万顺新材:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.6个百分点。"]}}