{"F": {"ts_code": "300055.SZ", "name": "万邦达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "其他石化", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100226", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.96, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.0155, "dv_ttm": 0.2517, "total_mv": 498702.7616, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.8, 19.0, 10.8, 6.0, 7.5, 9.3], "rev_series": [6.3, 20.1, 27.2, 28.2, 27.3, 26.2], "np_series": [-3.8, 2.1, 0.8, -1.9, 0.4, -2.6], "roe_series": [-6.8, 4.1, 1.6, -3.8, 0.7, -5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.7, "np_ttm": -2.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -4.5, "ocf_yield": -1.4, "gm_median": 9.3, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.51, "gm_chg_2022": -14.9, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.8, "fix_assets": 48.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.02, "capex_dep": 0.96, "interest_debt": 12.9, "debt_ebitda": 212.9, "debt_ratio": 38.5, "debt_mv": 25.9, "payout": 35.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 13.5, "np_yoy": 66.4, "np_vol": 360.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["石油化工产品", 46.0], ["合计特别调整", 4.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 70.9, "ret_prev2_year": -22.3, "ret_ytd": -26.7, "ret_pivot": 55.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": -26.2, "ret_120": -44.4, "ret_250": -8.9, "mdd_250": -57.8, "vol_250": 48.3, "pos_52w": 47.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 26, "hard": 91, "bondness": 49}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 57%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 9.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 212.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 57%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 9.3%,稳定度 51%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.5%(经营现金流/市值 -1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.3%,稳定度 51%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 0.96 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -26% / -44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "万邦达:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点。"]}}