{"F": {"ts_code": "300054.SZ", "name": "鼎龙股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100211", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 66.2, "pe_ttm": 67.3304, "pb": 11.2367, "dv_ttm": 0.1508, "total_mv": 6319623.8089, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.8, 33.4, 38.1, 36.9, 46.9, 50.9], "rev_series": [18.2, 23.6, 27.2, 26.7, 33.4, 36.6], "np_series": [-1.6, 2.1, 3.9, 2.2, 5.2, 7.2], "roe_series": [-4.4, 5.6, 9.5, 5.1, 11.6, 14.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 38.5, "np_ttm": 9.4, "ocf_ttm": 12.8, "fcf_ttm": 6.9, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 38.1, "gm_std": 6.5, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 5.3, "npm_median": 16.7, "roe_median": 9.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.6, "fix_assets": 31.5, "goodwill_ratio": 7.6, "pb_calc": 11.21, "capex_dep": 2.64, "interest_debt": 25.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 38.8, "debt_mv": 4.0, "payout": 15.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 10.4, "np_cagr3": 22.7, "rev_yoy": 11.2, "np_yoy": 70.2, "np_vol": 92.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 23, "fwd_pe": 57.8, "fwd_pe2": 43.9, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 32.0, "peg": 1.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["半导体材料(含CMP抛光垫、CMP抛光液、CMP", 23.0], ["半导体业务", 23.0], ["打印复印通用耗材(含彩色聚合碳粉、显影辊、载体、", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.2, "ret_prev2_year": 7.6, "ret_ytd": 76.5, "ret_pivot": 264.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.8, "ret_60": -12.2, "ret_120": 43.5, "ret_250": 110.4, "mdd_250": -40.6, "vol_250": 64.9, "pos_52w": 62.5}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 59, "hard": 52, "bondness": 21}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 67.3 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 38.1%、固定资产占比 33%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 38.1%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.1%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 2.64 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 67.3 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 110%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -12% / 44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "鼎龙股份:PE 比行业中位低 26.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}