{"F": {"ts_code": "300050.SZ", "name": "世纪鼎利", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "教育", "sw3": "培训教育", "ind": "教育", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.85, "pe_ttm": 290.724, "pb": 8.9958, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 373219.9895, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.6, 19.5, 24.3, 19.4, 24.4, 27.9], "rev_series": [6.8, 3.8, 4.7, 3.6, 2.8, 2.9], "np_series": [0.3, -13.9, -3.8, -2.2, -0.7, 0.2], "roe_series": [1.1, -81.1, -44.3, -37.2, -17.2, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.0, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 24.3, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -17.2, "npm_median": -59.3, "roe_median": -37.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.3, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 9.0, "capex_dep": 1.55, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 29.3, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -14.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 6.1, "np_yoy": -30.8, "np_vol": 2220.4, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["移动网优服务收入", 29.0], ["无线通信服务", 29.0], ["职业教育服务", 13.0], ["IT职业教育及实训服务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.4, "ret_prev2_year": 13.1, "ret_ytd": 23.9, "ret_pivot": 62.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.9, "ret_60": 9.8, "ret_120": 11.0, "ret_250": 0.4, "mdd_250": -36.8, "vol_250": 45.3, "pos_52w": 84.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 20, "bondness": 20}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 291 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 29%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 24.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.3%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -17.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.55 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 290.7 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 10% / 11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「教育」17 家中位:PE 96.5 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 43.0% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 49%。", "世纪鼎利:PE 比行业中位高 194.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 18.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.4个百分点。"]}}