{"F": {"ts_code": "300049.SZ", "name": "福瑞医科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗设备", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 42.3, "pe_ttm": 67.2313, "pb": 5.6819, "dv_ttm": 0.3546, "total_mv": 1116682.353, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [72.3, 73.4, 73.5, 74.7, 74.1, 75.0], "rev_series": [8.1, 9.0, 10.1, 11.5, 13.5, 16.0], "np_series": [0.6, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.1, 1.5], "roe_series": [4.6, 6.6, 6.4, 6.6, 6.9, 8.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.4, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 74.1, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": 1.1, "npm_median": 15.4, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.1, "fix_assets": 4.9, "goodwill_ratio": 5.2, "pb_calc": 5.68, "capex_dep": 4.43, "interest_debt": 2.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 28.3, "debt_mv": 2.2, "payout": 25.9, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 16.5, "np_cagr3": 16.3, "rev_yoy": 5.8, "np_yoy": 23.1, "np_vol": 20.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 45.5, "fwd_pe2": 33.9, "fwd_g1": 48.0, "fwd_g2": 34.0, "peg": 1.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["设备及技术", 34.0], ["药品", 12.0], ["医疗服务及其他", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 123.8, "ret_prev2_year": -27.7, "ret_ytd": -39.8, "ret_pivot": 21.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.6, "ret_60": -0.7, "ret_120": -20.1, "ret_250": -32.9, "mdd_250": -57.8, "vol_250": 60.1, "pos_52w": 48.2}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 80, "hard": 23, "bondness": 16}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 67.2 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(4 篇研报)前瞻 PE 45.5 倍,次年 33.9 倍,PEG 1.34。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 74.1%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 74.1%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 4.43 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 67.2 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -1% / -20%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "福瑞医科:PE 比行业中位高 28.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 18.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.8个百分点。"]}}