{"F": {"ts_code": "300047.SZ", "name": "天源迪科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.49, "pe_ttm": 210.7121, "pb": 1.8269, "dv_ttm": 0.1581, "total_mv": 605219.7203, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.6, 13.4, 12.2, 10.6, 8.9, 7.7], "rev_series": [52.5, 56.1, 56.9, 65.9, 81.6, 93.8], "np_series": [1.3, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [4.1, 1.2, 1.0, 0.9, 0.7, 0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 99.1, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 10.6, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -1.4, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 0.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.6, "fix_assets": 4.7, "goodwill_ratio": 6.9, "pb_calc": 1.83, "capex_dep": 3.56, "interest_debt": 29.0, "debt_ebitda": 8.5, "debt_ratio": 52.1, "debt_mv": 47.8, "payout": 34.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.1, "np_cagr3": -2.0, "rev_yoy": 12.7, "np_yoy": -5.7, "np_vol": 32.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["ICT产品销售", 47.0], ["ICT产品", 47.0], ["运营业务", 3.0], ["应用软件及服务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.0, "ret_prev2_year": 34.6, "ret_ytd": -24.3, "ret_pivot": 11.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.1, "ret_60": 0.6, "ret_120": -26.1, "ret_250": -51.5, "mdd_250": -55.3, "vol_250": 48.4, "pos_52w": 48.1}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 40, "hard": 11, "bondness": 30}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 210.7 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.6%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 3.56 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 210.7 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -52%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 1% / -26%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "天源迪科:PE 比行业中位高 128.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 38.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点。"]}}