{"F": {"ts_code": "300046.SZ", "name": "台基股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "分立器件", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100120", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.18, "pe_ttm": 133.1433, "pb": 5.044, "dv_ttm": 0.6203, "total_mv": 571932.9252, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.0, 30.5, 25.8, 23.2, 29.5, 28.8], "rev_series": [3.9, 3.3, 3.5, 3.2, 3.5, 3.6], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.5], "roe_series": [5.1, 5.3, 1.9, 2.9, 2.3, 4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.0, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 28.8, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 9.5, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.4, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.04, "capex_dep": 0.76, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 10.7, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 103.9, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 0.6, "np_cagr3": 35.5, "rev_yoy": 22.2, "np_yoy": -15.4, "np_vol": 53.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["晶闸管", 50.0], ["模块", 40.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0], ["其他", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.0, "ret_prev2_year": 130.4, "ret_ytd": -30.0, "ret_pivot": 63.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.4, "ret_60": -15.5, "ret_120": -26.8, "ret_250": -49.6, "mdd_250": -52.7, "vol_250": 47.2, "pos_52w": 51.7}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 53, "hard": 13, "bondness": 58}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 133.1 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.8%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.76 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 133.1 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -50%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -16% / -27%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "台基股份:PE 比行业中位高 51.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.0个百分点。"]}}