{"F": {"ts_code": "300041.SZ", "name": "回天新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "有机硅", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100108", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.96, "pe_ttm": 25.0297, "pb": 2.0184, "dv_ttm": 1.3686, "total_mv": 613141.7464, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.1, 22.5, 23.5, 22.8, 18.5, 23.6], "rev_series": [21.6, 29.5, 37.1, 39.0, 39.9, 44.4], "np_series": [2.2, 2.3, 2.9, 3.0, 1.0, 2.2], "roe_series": [12.1, 11.0, 11.9, 10.7, 3.6, 7.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.3, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 22.8, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 10.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.1, "fix_assets": 19.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.94, "capex_dep": 1.27, "interest_debt": 19.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 52.9, "debt_mv": 31.7, "payout": 37.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.1, "np_cagr3": -8.9, "rev_yoy": 9.1, "np_yoy": 17.1, "np_vol": 58.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 21.3, "fwd_pe2": 17.4, "fwd_g1": 17.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["有机硅胶", 33.0], ["其他胶类产品", 21.0], ["其他胶类", 21.0], ["聚氨酯胶", 19.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.8, "ret_prev2_year": -7.5, "ret_ytd": 0.3, "ret_pivot": 61.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.3, "ret_60": -16.9, "ret_120": -8.4, "ret_250": 1.9, "mdd_250": -42.4, "vol_250": 49.7, "pos_52w": 64.9}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 47, "hard": 45, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.0 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.8%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 1.27 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.0 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 50%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -17% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "回天新材:PE 比行业中位低 10.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点。"]}}