{"F": {"ts_code": "300040.SZ", "name": "九洲集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "电能综合服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100108", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.64, "pe_ttm": 168.9591, "pb": 1.3962, "dv_ttm": 0.3546, "total_mv": 362883.4656, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.4, 33.8, 39.3, 29.8, 27.4, 27.4], "rev_series": [12.8, 14.1, 13.3, 12.1, 14.8, 14.5], "np_series": [0.7, 1.8, 1.5, 0.9, -5.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [3.2, 7.2, 5.3, 3.3, -20.6, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.8, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_yield": 9.5, "ocf_yield": 13.4, "gm_median": 29.8, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 10.9, "npm_median": 8.3, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.4, "fix_assets": 34.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 1.4, "capex_dep": 0.55, "interest_debt": 24.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.9, "debt_ratio": 62.2, "debt_mv": 67.0, "payout": 36.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.0, "np_cagr3": -34.8, "rev_yoy": -10.6, "np_yoy": -45.5, "np_vol": 301.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["新能源", 36.0], ["变压器及箱式变电站", 5.0], ["电力电子设备", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.3, "ret_prev2_year": 31.6, "ret_ytd": -6.0, "ret_pivot": 12.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.0, "ret_60": -11.7, "ret_120": -27.2, "ret_250": -26.3, "mdd_250": -45.0, "vol_250": 53.3, "pos_52w": 60.6}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 56, "hard": 79, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 169.0 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.8%、固定资产占比 49%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.8%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.5%(经营现金流/市值 13.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 0.55 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 169.0 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -12% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "九洲集团:PE 比行业中位高 141.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.3个百分点。"]}}