{"F": {"ts_code": "300039.SZ", "name": "上海凯宝", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100108", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.37, "pe_ttm": 21.7239, "pb": 1.3109, "dv_ttm": 2.4209, "total_mv": 561702.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [80.2, 78.7, 77.9, 80.4, 81.5, 80.7], "rev_series": [9.1, 11.0, 11.2, 15.9, 14.7, 11.5], "np_series": [1.1, 1.4, 1.9, 3.3, 3.8, 2.8], "roe_series": [4.1, 5.0, 5.6, 8.4, 9.2, 6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.1, "np_ttm": 2.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 2.9, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 80.4, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 20.5, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.8, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.31, "capex_dep": 0.59, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 6.7, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 31.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.0, "np_cagr3": 13.4, "rev_yoy": -23.4, "np_yoy": -16.4, "np_vol": 31.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["针剂", 44.0], ["胶囊剂", 3.0], ["胶囊", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.3, "ret_prev2_year": -5.9, "ret_ytd": -9.4, "ret_pivot": 10.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.9, "ret_60": 23.2, "ret_120": -14.6, "ret_250": -20.0, "mdd_250": -37.3, "vol_250": 42.5, "pos_52w": 80.5}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 80, "hard": 9, "bondness": 45}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.7 倍、股息率 2.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 80.4%、固定资产占比 6%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 80.4%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 80.4%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 0.59 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.7 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 23% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "上海凯宝:PE 比行业中位低 1.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.6个百分点。"]}}