{"F": {"ts_code": "300037.SZ", "name": "新宙邦", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20100108", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 62.55, "pe_ttm": 29.5227, "pb": 4.2102, "dv_ttm": 0.7944, "total_mv": 4715560.3703, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.0, 35.5, 32.0, 28.9, 26.5, 24.3], "rev_series": [29.6, 69.5, 96.6, 74.8, 78.5, 96.4], "np_series": [5.2, 13.1, 17.6, 10.1, 9.4, 11.0], "roe_series": [12.6, 22.2, 23.2, 11.5, 10.0, 10.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 128.5, "np_ttm": 16.0, "ocf_ttm": 17.3, "fcf_ttm": 5.3, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 28.9, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 13.5, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.1, "fix_assets": 59.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.8, "pb_calc": 4.12, "capex_dep": 2.35, "interest_debt": 29.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 50.2, "debt_mv": 6.3, "payout": 34.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.1, "np_cagr3": -14.5, "rev_yoy": 75.7, "np_yoy": 103.3, "np_vol": 66.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 19, "fwd_pe": 21.9, "fwd_pe2": 17.6, "fwd_g1": 35.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.91, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电池化学品", 77.0], ["电子信息化学品", 13.0], ["有机氟化学品", 9.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.0, "ret_prev2_year": -20.2, "ret_ytd": 20.5, "ret_pivot": 117.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.4, "ret_60": -17.3, "ret_120": 6.2, "ret_250": 33.4, "mdd_250": -39.1, "vol_250": 61.5, "pos_52w": 66.9}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 49, "hard": 40, "bondness": 41}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 103%,PE TTM 29.5 倍 但前瞻 PE 21.9 倍,PEG 0.91。", "自由现金流 5.3 亿(正),次年预期增速 24%(19 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.9%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 2.35 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.5 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 33%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -17% / 6%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "新宙邦:PE 比行业中位低 6.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点。"]}}