{"F": {"ts_code": "300034.SZ", "name": "钢研高纳", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20091225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.34, "pe_ttm": 102.933, "pb": 3.3721, "dv_ttm": 0.2203, "total_mv": 1302235.2544, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.6, 28.2, 27.7, 29.2, 31.7, 23.8], "rev_series": [15.8, 20.0, 28.8, 34.1, 35.2, 37.0], "np_series": [2.0, 3.0, 3.4, 3.2, 2.5, 0.9], "roe_series": [9.5, 12.0, 11.3, 9.8, 7.3, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 39.3, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 9.6, "fcf_ttm": 8.3, "fcf_yield": 6.3, "ocf_yield": 7.4, "gm_median": 28.2, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -6.9, "npm_median": 12.2, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.2, "fix_assets": 13.6, "goodwill_ratio": 4.1, "pb_calc": 3.37, "capex_dep": 1.01, "interest_debt": 7.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 44.5, "debt_mv": 5.8, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.7, "np_cagr3": -36.2, "rev_yoy": 13.0, "np_yoy": 61.2, "np_vol": 37.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 52.1, "fwd_pe2": 40.2, "fwd_g1": 97.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 1.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["铸造高温合金制品", 20.0], ["铸造合金制品", 20.0], ["变形高温合金制品", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.4, "ret_prev2_year": -23.0, "ret_ytd": -16.4, "ret_pivot": 28.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.0, "ret_60": -1.3, "ret_120": -19.1, "ret_250": -11.5, "mdd_250": -40.0, "vol_250": 43.5, "pos_52w": 65.7}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 50, "hard": 28, "bondness": 28}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 102.9 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 17%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 52.1 倍,次年 40.2 倍,PEG 1.74。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.3%(经营现金流/市值 7.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 1.01 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 102.9 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -1% / -19%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "钢研高纳:PE 比行业中位高 29.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点。"]}}