{"F": {"ts_code": "300033.SZ", "name": "同花顺", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20091225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 222.0, "pe_ttm": 45.7078, "pb": 21.7779, "dv_ttm": 1.6731, "total_mv": 16708608.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [91.7, 91.4, 89.6, 89.1, 89.4, 91.5], "rev_series": [28.4, 35.1, 35.6, 35.6, 41.9, 60.3], "np_series": [17.2, 19.1, 16.9, 14.0, 18.2, 32.1], "roe_series": [37.4, 32.7, 24.6, 19.3, 23.8, 36.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 69.0, "np_ttm": 36.6, "ocf_ttm": 48.5, "fcf_ttm": 47.0, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 2.9, "gm_median": 89.6, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 47.5, "roe_median": 24.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.5, "fix_assets": 13.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 21.78, "capex_dep": 2.23, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 46.4, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 87.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.2, "np_cagr3": 23.8, "rev_yoy": 48.7, "np_yoy": 89.8, "np_vol": 33.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 34.4, "fwd_pe2": 29.1, "fwd_g1": 33.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.91, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["增值电信服务", 24.0], ["增值电信业务", 24.0], ["广告及互联网推广服务", 20.0], ["广告及互联网业务推广服务", 20.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.5, "ret_prev2_year": 90.7, "ret_ytd": -2.0, "ret_pivot": 229.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.4, "ret_60": 15.0, "ret_120": -0.7, "ret_250": -20.9, "mdd_250": -33.8, "vol_250": 47.0, "pos_52w": 76.2}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 85, "hard": 15, "bondness": 44}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 10%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 89.6%,稳定度 99%、ROE 近 5 年中位 24.6%。", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%,分红率 87%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 89.6%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 89.6%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 2.23 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.7 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / 15% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "同花顺:PE 比行业中位低 37.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 40.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}