{"F": {"ts_code": "300021.SZ", "name": "大禹节水", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农业综合Ⅱ", "sw3": "农业综合Ⅲ", "ind": "农业综合Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20091030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.09, "pe_ttm": 118.7984, "pb": 1.5666, "dv_ttm": 0.4816, "total_mv": 418148.3075, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.6, 23.3, 24.7, 24.3, 17.8, 21.4], "rev_series": [20.2, 35.2, 34.0, 34.5, 43.8, 37.6], "np_series": [1.0, 1.4, 1.0, 0.5, 0.8, 0.5], "roe_series": [6.3, 8.0, 5.2, 2.5, 4.0, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 40.7, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -3.0, "fcf_ttm": -4.0, "fcf_yield": -9.5, "ocf_yield": -7.1, "gm_median": 23.3, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.0, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.3, "pb_calc": 1.57, "capex_dep": 4.25, "interest_debt": 29.1, "debt_ebitda": 7.9, "debt_ratio": 71.7, "debt_mv": 69.6, "payout": 50.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.4, "np_cagr3": -20.4, "rev_yoy": 24.3, "np_yoy": -108.8, "np_vol": 44.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["智慧农水项目建设", 28.0], ["农水设计服务", 11.0], ["合计特别调整", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.8, "ret_prev2_year": -14.2, "ret_ytd": -10.7, "ret_pivot": 35.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.9, "ret_60": 9.9, "ret_120": -15.0, "ret_250": -23.4, "mdd_250": -32.1, "vol_250": 29.2, "pos_52w": 75.9}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 49, "hard": 8, "bondness": 52}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 118.8 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%、固定资产占比 5%、有息负债/EBITDA 7.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.5%(经营现金流/市值 -7.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.3%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 4.25 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 118.8 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 10% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农业综合Ⅱ」3 家中位:PE 72.2 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 18.4% / 固定资产占比 5% / 分红率 53%。", "大禹节水:PE 比行业中位高 46.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}