{"F": {"ts_code": "300019.SZ", "name": "硅宝科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "有机硅", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20091030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.18, "pe_ttm": 25.844, "pb": 2.0786, "dv_ttm": 2.1157, "total_mv": 557439.4806, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.8, 21.8, 19.5, 25.3, 20.8, 21.0], "rev_series": [15.2, 25.6, 26.9, 26.1, 31.6, 37.5], "np_series": [2.0, 2.7, 2.5, 3.2, 2.4, 2.8], "roe_series": [20.7, 17.1, 11.6, 13.5, 9.5, 10.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 38.4, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_yield": 4.2, "ocf_yield": 6.2, "gm_median": 21.0, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -12.4, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 11.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.6, "fix_assets": 11.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 2.08, "capex_dep": 1.12, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 30.0, "debt_mv": 2.0, "payout": 42.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.7, "np_cagr3": 3.6, "rev_yoy": 4.9, "np_yoy": -40.8, "np_vol": 21.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["建筑类用胶", 35.0], ["热熔胶", 29.0], ["工业类用胶", 22.0], ["其他业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.9, "ret_prev2_year": -10.1, "ret_ytd": -30.3, "ret_pivot": 37.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.2, "ret_60": -17.5, "ret_120": -35.7, "ret_250": -36.4, "mdd_250": -46.0, "vol_250": 47.6, "pos_52w": 56.7}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 46, "hard": 46, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.8 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%、固定资产占比 29%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.2%(经营现金流/市值 6.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.0%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 1.12 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.8 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -18% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "硅宝科技:PE 比行业中位低 10.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点。"]}}