{"F": {"ts_code": "300018.SZ", "name": "中元股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20091030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.94, "pe_ttm": 42.174, "pb": 4.0724, "dv_ttm": 0.8375, "total_mv": 583520.337, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [51.7, 47.9, 46.1, 47.3, 47.0, 48.5], "rev_series": [4.1, 4.2, 4.4, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5], "np_series": [0.5, 0.9, 0.1, 0.6, 0.8, 1.4], "roe_series": [4.3, 7.9, 0.7, 5.0, 6.1, 10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.8, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 47.3, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -5.6, "npm_median": 14.6, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.3, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 4.07, "capex_dep": 5.93, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 14.2, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 38.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 13.9, "np_cagr3": 150.2, "rev_yoy": 9.0, "np_yoy": -1.3, "np_vol": 230.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["其他业务", 31.0], ["合计特别调整", 30.0], ["电力故障录波装置", 19.0], ["电力故障录波分析装置", 19.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.2, "ret_prev2_year": 12.1, "ret_ytd": 9.5, "ret_pivot": 156.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": 5.3, "ret_120": -9.6, "ret_250": 26.1, "mdd_250": -34.9, "vol_250": 57.7, "pos_52w": 74.6}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 62, "hard": 7, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 42.2 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 47.3%、固定资产占比 4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 47.3%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 47.3%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 5.93 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.2 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 26%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 5% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "中元股份:PE 比行业中位低 1.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 10.6个百分点。"]}}