{"F": {"ts_code": "300015.SZ", "name": "爱尔眼科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗服务", "sw3": "医院", "ind": "医疗服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20091030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.39, "pe_ttm": 30.6415, "pb": 3.3894, "dv_ttm": 2.1408, "total_mv": 7802334.8118, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [51.0, 51.9, 50.5, 50.8, 48.1, 47.1], "rev_series": [119.1, 150.0, 161.1, 203.7, 209.8, 223.5], "np_series": [17.2, 23.2, 25.2, 33.6, 35.6, 32.4], "roe_series": [21.0, 22.0, 18.0, 18.9, 18.0, 15.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 227.9, "np_ttm": 25.5, "ocf_ttm": 54.9, "fcf_ttm": 36.9, "fcf_yield": 4.7, "ocf_yield": 7.0, "gm_median": 50.5, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 16.7, "roe_median": 18.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.8, "fix_assets": 68.0, "goodwill_ratio": 25.9, "pb_calc": 3.39, "capex_dep": 2.06, "interest_debt": 76.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 32.6, "debt_mv": 9.8, "payout": 41.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.5, "np_cagr3": 8.7, "rev_yoy": 3.8, "np_yoy": -33.8, "np_vol": 16.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 22.1, "fwd_pe2": 18.5, "fwd_g1": 38.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 1.1, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["屈光项目", 14.0], ["医疗服务-屈光项目", 14.0], ["视光服务项目", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -16.3, "ret_prev2_year": -15.8, "ret_ytd": -22.3, "ret_pivot": -9.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.9, "ret_60": 1.0, "ret_120": -16.6, "ret_250": -38.2, "mdd_250": -42.1, "vol_250": 28.4, "pos_52w": 61.5}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 66, "hard": 30, "bondness": 39}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 19%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 50.5%,稳定度 96%、ROE 近 5 年中位 18.0%。", "自由现金流/市值 4.7%,分红率 42%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 50.5%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.7%(经营现金流/市值 7.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 50.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 2.06 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.6 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 28%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 1% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗服务」52 家中位:PE 73.1 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.3% / 固定资产占比 19% / 分红率 34%。", "爱尔眼科:PE 比行业中位低 42.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}