{"F": {"ts_code": "300014.SZ", "name": "亿纬锂能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20091030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 51.04, "pe_ttm": 19.0254, "pb": 2.2111, "dv_ttm": 0.9084, "total_mv": 11092507.3776, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.0, 21.6, 16.4, 17.0, 17.4, 16.2], "rev_series": [81.6, 169.0, 363.0, 487.8, 486.1, 614.7], "np_series": [16.5, 29.1, 35.1, 40.5, 40.8, 41.3], "roe_series": [15.1, 18.0, 14.5, 12.4, 11.3, 10.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 789.9, "np_ttm": 58.3, "ocf_ttm": 47.3, "fcf_ttm": -66.3, "fcf_yield": -6.0, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 17.0, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -12.6, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 12.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.4, "fix_assets": 545.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.21, "capex_dep": 3.42, "interest_debt": 326.0, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 63.6, "debt_mv": 29.4, "payout": 25.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.2, "np_cagr3": 5.6, "rev_yoy": 62.2, "np_yoy": 105.7, "np_vol": 27.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.3, "consensus_n": 23, "fwd_pe": 15.4, "fwd_pe2": 11.3, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["动力电池", 38.0], ["储能电池", 33.0], ["电池材料", 15.0], ["消费电池", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.2, "ret_prev2_year": 12.4, "ret_ytd": -22.1, "ret_pivot": 68.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.1, "ret_60": -7.4, "ret_120": -24.9, "ret_250": 3.3, "mdd_250": -43.9, "vol_250": 55.5, "pos_52w": 56.2}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 43, "hard": 63, "bondness": 26}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 3.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.0 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -7% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "亿纬锂能:PE 比行业中位低 16.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.6个百分点。"]}}