{"F": {"ts_code": "300013.SZ", "name": "新宁物流", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "中间产品及消费品供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20091030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.15, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 12.1219, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 231718.9435, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.6, 25.3, 18.8, 11.3, 17.1, 9.0], "rev_series": [8.1, 8.8, 6.7, 4.1, 4.8, 7.2], "np_series": [-4.3, -1.9, -0.0, -1.6, -0.7, -0.3], "roe_series": [-105.8, -158.3, -7.7, null, -226.5, -14.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.0, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_yield": -11.4, "ocf_yield": -11.2, "gm_median": 17.1, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.66, "gm_chg_2022": -6.8, "npm_median": -15.7, "roe_median": -86.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.9, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 12.12, "capex_dep": 0.27, "interest_debt": 4.8, "debt_ebitda": 8.5, "debt_ratio": 76.3, "debt_mv": 20.6, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 2.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 301.9, "np_yoy": 1942.9, "np_vol": 3899.2, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["货运代理", 36.0], ["仓储及仓储增值服务", 8.0], ["送货服务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.5, "ret_prev2_year": -8.2, "ret_ytd": 5.3, "ret_pivot": 76.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.8, "ret_60": 1.2, "ret_120": 0.2, "ret_250": 0.5, "mdd_250": -33.5, "vol_250": 44.0, "pos_52w": 84.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 14, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 76%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 -11.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.4%(经营现金流/市值 -11.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 66%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 0.27 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 1% / 0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "新宁物流:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.7个百分点。"]}}