{"F": {"ts_code": "300008.SZ", "name": "天海防务", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航海装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航海装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航海装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20091030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.46, "pe_ttm": 31.4052, "pb": 4.3715, "dv_ttm": 0.4954, "total_mv": 1116306.8632, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.5, 13.7, 9.6, 11.0, 14.8, 19.9], "rev_series": [5.2, 14.2, 27.3, 36.1, 39.5, 45.2], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 1.4, 1.0, 1.4, 3.0], "roe_series": [2.5, 1.6, 8.0, 5.5, 6.9, 13.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 49.1, "np_ttm": 3.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 13.7, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": -10.8, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.3, "fix_assets": 8.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.37, "capex_dep": 1.22, "interest_debt": 15.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 61.5, "debt_mv": 13.4, "payout": 18.5, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 18.3, "np_cagr3": 29.2, "rev_yoy": 21.3, "np_yoy": 45.5, "np_vol": 167.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["船舶工程设计建造总承包业务", 31.0], ["船海工程设计建造总承包业务", 31.0], ["船海工程设计技术服务业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 69.1, "ret_prev2_year": 17.7, "ret_ytd": -17.8, "ret_pivot": 84.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.9, "ret_60": 3.1, "ret_120": -22.4, "ret_250": -12.9, "mdd_250": -43.6, "vol_250": 47.6, "pos_52w": 65.1}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 36, "hard": 20, "bondness": 19}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.4 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 13.7%、固定资产占比 12%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 13.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.7%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.22 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.4 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 3% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航海装备Ⅱ」10 家中位:PE 30.4 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 20.8% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 30%。", "天海防务:PE 比行业中位高 1.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}