{"F": {"ts_code": "300005.SZ", "name": "探路者", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20091030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.67, "pe_ttm": 85.6048, "pb": 4.3913, "dv_ttm": 0.0903, "total_mv": 942910.2474, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.0, 40.4, 51.7, 48.2, 47.4, 47.4], "rev_series": [9.1, 12.4, 11.4, 13.9, 15.9, 13.8], "np_series": [-2.7, 0.5, 0.7, 0.7, 1.1, 0.8], "roe_series": [-12.1, 2.5, 3.3, 3.4, 5.3, 4.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.6, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 47.4, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 17.7, "npm_median": 4.3, "roe_median": 3.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.2, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 21.8, "pb_calc": 4.65, "capex_dep": 3.0, "interest_debt": 5.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 37.3, "debt_mv": 5.5, "payout": 10.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 6.6, "np_cagr3": 4.1, "rev_yoy": 42.3, "np_yoy": 155.1, "np_vol": 49.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 66.7, "fwd_pe2": 50.2, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 2.02, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["户外服装", 47.0], ["芯片业务", 38.0], ["户外鞋品", 10.0], ["户外装备", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 54.8, "ret_prev2_year": 6.3, "ret_ytd": -1.4, "ret_pivot": 114.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.6, "ret_60": -28.9, "ret_120": -26.7, "ret_250": 17.1, "mdd_250": -63.8, "vol_250": 67.0, "pos_52w": 43.7}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 67, "hard": 13, "bondness": 31}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商誉占比高", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 85.6 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 66.7 倍,次年 50.2 倍,PEG 2.02。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 47.4%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 47.4%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 17.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 3.00 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 85.6 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 17%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 67%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -29% / -27%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "探路者:PE 比行业中位高 48.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点。"]}}