{"F": {"ts_code": "300004.SZ", "name": "南风股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20091030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.71, "pe_ttm": 23967.1592, "pb": 2.362, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 418074.4256, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.3, 17.8, 18.3, 25.7, 30.2, 25.9], "rev_series": [8.0, 8.4, 3.1, 4.6, 6.2, 5.7], "np_series": [1.5, -6.9, 0.2, -0.2, 0.7, 0.3], "roe_series": [7.0, -35.4, 1.5, -1.2, 4.3, 1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.1, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -2.2, "ocf_yield": -1.7, "gm_median": 25.7, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.0, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.36, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 15.5, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 22.5, "np_cagr3": 8.4, "rev_yoy": -22.9, "np_yoy": -131.3, "np_vol": 334.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 72.6, "fwd_pe2": 39.6, "fwd_g1": 32920.0, "fwd_g2": 83.0, "peg": 0.87, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["通风与空气处理系统设备", 49.0], ["销售废铁租赁收入", 1.0], ["3D打印服务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 99.2, "ret_prev2_year": -0.5, "ret_ytd": -28.9, "ret_pivot": 107.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.2, "ret_60": -25.0, "ret_120": -31.5, "ret_250": -28.7, "mdd_250": -57.5, "vol_250": 70.6, "pos_52w": 50.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 21, "bondness": 1}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 23967 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 16%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.2%(经营现金流/市值 -1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.7%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23967.2 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -25% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "南风股份:PE 比行业中位高 23924.9倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.0个百分点。"]}}