{"F": {"ts_code": "300002.SZ", "name": "神州泰岳", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "游戏Ⅱ", "sw3": "游戏Ⅲ", "ind": "游戏Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "创业板", "list_date": "20091030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.29, "pe_ttm": 24.1971, "pb": 2.0705, "dv_ttm": 0.7238, "total_mv": 1630787.1631, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [60.2, 62.2, 60.4, 62.7, 61.0, 57.7], "rev_series": [36.0, 43.1, 48.1, 59.6, 64.5, 58.2], "np_series": [3.5, 3.8, 5.4, 8.9, 14.3, 8.0], "roe_series": [9.2, 9.3, 11.8, 16.7, 22.4, 10.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 63.7, "np_ttm": 6.7, "ocf_ttm": 12.4, "fcf_ttm": 11.6, "fcf_yield": 7.1, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 61.0, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 0.1, "npm_median": 13.5, "roe_median": 11.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.7, "fix_assets": 5.2, "goodwill_ratio": 14.2, "pb_calc": 2.07, "capex_dep": 1.87, "interest_debt": 0.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 13.7, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 13.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.6, "np_cagr3": 13.9, "rev_yoy": 20.5, "np_yoy": -25.0, "np_vol": 40.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 16.8, "fwd_pe2": 14.5, "fwd_g1": 44.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.12, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["游戏", 17.0], ["手机游戏", 17.0], ["ICT运营管理", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.3, "ret_prev2_year": 32.4, "ret_ytd": -27.7, "ret_pivot": -5.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.7, "ret_60": 17.6, "ret_120": -21.1, "ret_250": -41.9, "mdd_250": -54.7, "vol_250": 40.2, "pos_52w": 53.5}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 72, "hard": 9, "bondness": 23}, "label": "轻资产现金牛", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 61.0%,自由现金流/市值 7.1%:现金机器,久期短。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 61.0%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "久期短、无杠杆,加息期相对安全;放水期跑不过科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.1%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 61.0%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.87 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.2 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 18% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「游戏Ⅱ」26 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 60.8% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 43%。", "神州泰岳:PE 比行业中位低 0.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点。"]}}