{"F": {"ts_code": "003043.SZ", "name": "华亚智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210406", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 68.33, "pe_ttm": 104.5157, "pb": 5.0658, "dv_ttm": 0.34, "total_mv": 984021.0133, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.9, 39.4, 37.7, 32.9, 30.1, 27.0], "rev_series": [3.7, 5.3, 6.2, 4.6, 6.3, 10.0], "np_series": [0.7, 1.1, 1.5, 0.9, 0.8, 0.8], "roe_series": [19.3, 17.7, 15.5, 7.9, 5.6, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.4, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 32.9, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -2.2, "npm_median": 19.1, "roe_median": 7.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.0, "fix_assets": 5.9, "goodwill_ratio": 8.5, "pb_calc": 5.03, "capex_dep": 1.28, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 31.2, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.4, "np_cagr3": -17.4, "rev_yoy": 8.3, "np_yoy": 35.9, "np_vol": 33.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 35.6, "fwd_pe2": 25.5, "fwd_g1": 194.0, "fwd_g2": 40.0, "peg": 0.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["精密金属结构件", 40.0], ["智能物流装备", 9.0], ["半导体设备维修", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 58.4, "ret_prev2_year": -17.4, "ret_ytd": 48.2, "ret_pivot": 149.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": -16.7, "ret_120": 39.3, "ret_250": 48.8, "mdd_250": -47.4, "vol_250": 58.8, "pos_52w": 64.5}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 52, "hard": 30, "bondness": 18}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 104.5 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 35.6 倍,次年 25.5 倍,PEG 0.89。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.9%),硬资产占比 19%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.9%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.28 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 104.5 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 49%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -17% / 39%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "华亚智能:PE 比行业中位高 23.0倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.6个百分点。"]}}