{"F": {"ts_code": "003040.SZ", "name": "楚天龙", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信终端及配件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210322", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.12, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 7.0312, "dv_ttm": 0.0473, "total_mv": 973919.232, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.7, 25.4, 29.9, 30.2, 30.5, 25.8], "rev_series": [10.3, 13.1, 17.2, 13.4, 10.5, 10.0], "np_series": [1.0, 0.6, 1.7, 0.7, 0.2, 0.1], "roe_series": [10.2, 5.2, 11.4, 4.7, 1.5, 0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.6, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 0.9, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 29.9, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.7, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.03, "capex_dep": 2.65, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 28.0, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 60.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -16.6, "np_cagr3": -64.9, "rev_yoy": -30.2, "np_yoy": -56.2, "np_vol": 89.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["嵌入式安全产品", 38.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0], ["其他", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 58.6, "ret_prev2_year": -32.7, "ret_ytd": 2.2, "ret_pivot": 114.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 61.2, "ret_60": 79.1, "ret_120": 23.6, "ret_250": -19.6, "mdd_250": -61.0, "vol_250": 47.6, "pos_52w": 82.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 25, "bondness": 49}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 28%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.9%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 2.65 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 61% / 79% / 24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "楚天龙:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点。"]}}