{"F": {"ts_code": "003039.SZ", "name": "顺控发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210308", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.85, "pe_ttm": 25.6022, "pb": 2.7428, "dv_ttm": 1.7977, "total_mv": 793511.5295, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [47.6, 48.3, 45.2, 42.8, 43.3, 43.9], "rev_series": [12.3, 13.4, 13.2, 14.6, 18.4, 22.3], "np_series": [2.7, 2.7, 2.4, 2.4, 2.7, 3.0], "roe_series": [16.5, 13.8, 10.3, 9.8, 10.1, 10.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.8, "np_ttm": 3.1, "ocf_ttm": 6.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 7.5, "gm_median": 43.9, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 23.5, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.8, "fix_assets": 24.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.8, "pb_calc": 2.74, "capex_dep": 2.25, "interest_debt": 28.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 51.2, "debt_mv": 35.4, "payout": 47.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.1, "np_cagr3": 8.4, "rev_yoy": 5.3, "np_yoy": 5.0, "np_vol": 9.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["水务业务", 19.0], ["固废处理业务", 14.0], ["印刷包装业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.2, "ret_prev2_year": -13.1, "ret_ytd": -18.1, "ret_pivot": 24.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.9, "ret_60": 10.7, "ret_120": -22.9, "ret_250": -8.1, "mdd_250": -41.0, "vol_250": 34.6, "pos_52w": 69.5}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 61, "hard": 48, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.6 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 43.9%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.9%),硬资产占比 30%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 7.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.9%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 2.25 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.6 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 11% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "顺控发展:PE 比行业中位低 0.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.9个百分点。"]}}