{"F": {"ts_code": "003038.SZ", "name": "鑫铂股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.95, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.9617, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 266419.3878, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.4, 13.1, 11.6, 12.5, 7.4, 4.9], "rev_series": [12.9, 26.0, 42.2, 68.2, 85.7, 82.5], "np_series": [0.9, 1.2, 1.9, 3.0, 1.7, -1.9], "roe_series": [24.9, 17.7, 13.2, 12.2, 5.5, -6.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 89.1, "np_ttm": -2.8, "ocf_ttm": -6.8, "fcf_ttm": -12.8, "fcf_yield": -48.0, "ocf_yield": -25.7, "gm_median": 11.6, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 4.4, "roe_median": 12.2, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 27.3, "fix_assets": 33.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 0.96, "capex_dep": 1.74, "interest_debt": 79.2, "debt_ebitda": 49.3, "debt_ratio": 77.1, "debt_mv": 297.2, "payout": 24.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 25.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 16.5, "np_yoy": -242.7, "np_vol": 103.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["新能源光伏", 33.0], ["其他主营业务", 7.0], ["其他", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.5, "ret_prev2_year": -31.9, "ret_ytd": -30.7, "ret_pivot": -7.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.9, "ret_60": -10.3, "ret_120": -32.8, "ret_250": -41.6, "mdd_250": -51.7, "vol_250": 39.7, "pos_52w": 55.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 44, "bondness": 24}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 77%,有息负债 79 亿,经营现金流/市值 -25.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 11.6%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -48.0%(经营现金流/市值 -25.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 1.74 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -10% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "鑫铂股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}