{"F": {"ts_code": "003037.SZ", "name": "三和管桩", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制品", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210204", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.82, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2659, "dv_ttm": 0.8551, "total_mv": 348661.4754, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.9, 7.7, 11.6, 9.8, 10.0, 10.8], "rev_series": [71.5, 81.7, 66.5, 67.3, 62.0, 61.2], "np_series": [3.3, 0.8, 1.6, 0.8, 0.3, 0.5], "roe_series": [28.8, 5.2, 8.9, 3.5, 0.9, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 58.3, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_yield": -10.2, "ocf_yield": -4.5, "gm_median": 10.0, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -9.3, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 3.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.8, "fix_assets": 21.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.27, "capex_dep": 0.86, "interest_debt": 24.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.6, "debt_ratio": 59.3, "debt_mv": 70.9, "payout": 62.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.7, "np_cagr3": -32.7, "rev_yoy": -9.7, "np_yoy": -77.4, "np_vol": 77.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["桩类产品", 49.0], ["混凝土预制构件", 1.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.7, "ret_prev2_year": -34.1, "ret_ytd": -27.7, "ret_pivot": 15.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.1, "ret_60": -6.1, "ret_120": -22.3, "ret_250": -36.5, "mdd_250": -43.9, "vol_250": 33.0, "pos_52w": 63.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 51, "bondness": 62}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.0%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.2%(经营现金流/市值 -4.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.0%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.86 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -6% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "三和管桩:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.5个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}