{"F": {"ts_code": "003036.SZ", "name": "泰坦股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "纺织服装设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 50.8, "pe_ttm": 263.4044, "pb": 7.7416, "dv_ttm": 0.1297, "total_mv": 1100361.02, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.2, 15.9, 21.6, 20.1, 16.0, 15.5], "rev_series": [6.7, 12.4, 16.0, 14.0, 16.6, 15.1], "np_series": [0.6, 0.7, 1.3, 1.3, 0.9, 0.5], "roe_series": [7.5, 7.4, 10.8, 9.6, 6.1, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.5, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": -0.9, "gm_median": 16.0, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": 3.5, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.9, "fix_assets": 5.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 7.32, "capex_dep": 1.93, "interest_debt": 3.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 54.0, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.8, "np_cagr3": -28.6, "rev_yoy": 20.5, "np_yoy": -15.4, "np_vol": 44.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["纺纱设备", 51.0], ["纺织纱线", 15.0], ["织造设备", 13.0], ["织造机械", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.6, "ret_prev2_year": 1.7, "ret_ytd": 229.6, "ret_pivot": 566.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.3, "ret_60": -36.7, "ret_120": 177.1, "ret_250": 197.2, "mdd_250": -61.0, "vol_250": 76.2, "pos_52w": 48.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 29, "bondness": 38}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 263.4 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 18%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.93 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 263.4 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 197%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -37% / 177%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "泰坦股份:PE 比行业中位高 221.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点。"]}}